The Post-American President

The Teleraph asks the question does Obama want to be reelected in 2012?

The article speculates that Obama is more interested in being an ex-president, traveling about, going speeches to adoring crowds on pet issues, and generally having a good time cashing I on his former lofty perch. It is a variation on theme of making excuses for why his poll numbers are falling. Usually, the claim is the unwashed masses of America just cannot appreciate how wonderful Obama is. At least this article is putting some blame on him.

It is wrong, of course. Obama has all intentions of running in 2012. A man who elieves his inauguration was the culmination of all history until that point is not going to give up. Poll numbers, shmoll numbers. A narcissist like him will never believe he is not the most revered, beloved figure in all of recorded history. His belief will even overcome the obvious boredom he has with the presidency.

Obama reminds me of someone who has never been in charge of anything I his life, so he has a romanticized view of what it is like. You know, the boss tells everyone else want to do and it magically gets done. Someone will clean up the Gulf oil spill. Someone will come up with a cheap alternative energy resource. All that Obama has to do is say it needs to be done. Sometimes I think he has to be aware of the reality of his situation, then I quickly realize that he has no clue.

Certainly, I think Obama would like to live the post-president lifestyle of golfing interrupted by speeches, but since that is exactly what he thinks the presidency is, why would he give it up?

The big question is not what will Obama do in 2012, but what will the Democrats do? They are headed for a massive defeat in the midterms. It is not all Obama’s fault like the1994 republican landslide rested squarely on Bill Clinton’s shoulders. Nevertheless, Obama will still be the most high profile Democrat left standing. With his dropping poll numbers, he will also make thee biggest target for blame regarding the losses.

A couple points before I go any further. One, 2012 is a long way off. Anything an happen. Everyone though Clinton would be a lame duck after the ’94 midterms, but he survived to enjoy a landslide reelection in ’96. Obama’s poll numbers are bound to bounce some when there is republican opposition in Congress. Two, in spite of that, Obama is not the skilled politician Clinton was. He has never had to face tough opposition in his career. He may not handle it well.

I suppose he could turn things around and be a candidate Democrats are enthusiastic about or Republicans can blow it by nominating another John McCain or Bob Dole, but I am hoping neither will be the case.

So the real question is whether the Democrats will believe Obama has destroyed the brand, al la Bush 43 with Republicans, that they will renominate him rather than burn off a viable candidate or will he get a primary opponent? The question hinges on what happens November 2nd. If any Democrat wants to run in 2012, he or she is goig to have to jump out there by early January in order to raise the cash needed for a run.

When it comes down to it, I think no one will have the nerve to challenge Obama no matter how low his poll numbers go., probably because of the racial climate. Not even Hillary Clinton. Obama’s ego certainly will not allow him to bow out, either. The Democrats are going to have to swallow their buyer’s remorse and hope for the best.