I have mixed feelings about “Statistical Probabilities.” I think its heart is in the right place, but there are an awful lot of disturbing elements to it.Starfleet Medical sends a group of failed augments to DS9 so Bashir, a successful productive Augment, can offer some counseling. The Augments have some severe mental and emotional disorders, ranging from advanced bi-polar to near catatonic. Nevertheless, they are incredibly brilliant.
Here are a couple problems. First, hy send them to a medical doctor for counseling? Even f he is a successful Augment, psychiatry is not his thing. What sort of breakthrough can Starfleet be expecting? Second, not only is there a war going on, but DS9 is right on the front lines. The station was occupied territory just a few weeks prior. Is there not a better place and time to try something like this?
You have to overlook the absurdity of both those issues in order to appreciate the plot--Bashir encourages the Augments to analyzes peace treaty negotiation data and eventually classified intelligence in order to chart Federation strategy. That is all well an good at first. The Augments uncover an underhanded demand for territory in which they can create tetracil-white. But eventually, the Augments decide the Federation should surrender in order to preserve 9 billion lives--and Bashir initially goes for it.
Maybe it is because I do not particularly like Bashir, but I felt his flirtation with the idea of surrender was treasonous even if he did accept the Augments are always right in their final conclusions. He soon snaps out of it after Sisko gives him a better to die on your feet than live on your knees speech and Quark explains that even when the oddsareagainst you in gambling, sometimes it is still possible to win.
In this case, the x-factor is Serina, the catatonic Augment who stops the rest of her companions from surrendering on the Federation’s behalf.
Or something like that. Frankly, the resolution does not make it clear whether the point of preventing the Augments from reaching the Dominion was to prevent the actual surrender of the Federation or save them from being killed by the dominion. The former is a ridiculous notion, but the episode seems to take the possibility seriously. The Federation has some peculiar rules about who can negotiate treaties on its behalf, no?
There is a subtle, but still preachy theme running through the episode that Bashir does not believe the Augments ought to be locked up. Perhaps they would not be so odd if they had been accepted in society. It was easy to become sympathetic right up until their extremely irrational decision at the end which screwed it all up. Bashir had spent the entire episode up until that point trying to prove their usefulness, then they blow it. So what is the message/ ignore anyone who wants to mainstream the mentally handicapped because it is a bad idea? That is what it looks like.
A couple geek notes; Damar becomes head of the Cardassian Union after Dukat loses hi mind over Ziyal’s death in “Sacrifice of Angels.” He will start drinking more heavily as his association with the Dominion weighs more heavily on him. Two more of the Augments predictions--the Romulans siding with the Federation and the Cardassian rebellion-- come true, making the moral of the episode even stranger. Finally, Anson Williams directed ’”Statistical Probabilities.” Yes, Potsy from Happy Days. He made a decent career for himself directing television shows ater he left acting.
I do not consider ‘Statistical probabilities’ a bad episode, but I think it went through so many rewrites all logic flew out the window. Nothing about it really makes sense unless you have the Augments officially serving on the behalf of Starfleet Intelligence. Havig them as metal patients privy to classified war intelligence right on the front lines is just dumb. Instead, they were made out to be characters to sympathize with, then took away any reason for us to do so. Very poor execution of the idea.
Rating; *** (out of 5)
